Okay, I am not saying YouTube.com doesn't offer a great product that has come to stay. I find it amusing like almost everyone else and see its value as a new form of entertainment for some, and a form of expression for others. What I find hard to believe is that this library of non-sense videos will ever be a threat to conventional television. And I extend this belief to all forms of online video as they exist today.
Thinking that quality produced entertainment can be threatened by low-end, one man, non-scripted shows is our typical sensationalist reaction. But in reality, how much more can you watch of a crazy cat staring at a ball?
Here is the thing... Watching video on your computer is still not a social experience such as watching TV with your family. It is a lonely act for the most of it, and when shared it becomes a nuisance having someone looking over our shoulder to our computer screen. We become paranoid and begin wondering if the intruder is checking out our icons to see what software we have installed.
Microsoft and Apple both provide products to make your computer an entertainment centre that will feed every TV around your house, but the concept hasn't evolved yet as to become a medium changing event.
Contents quality and viewing experience are online video's biggest enemies thus far.
Anyone can post online and those developing quality contents are doing so quite effectively. TV networks are getting their contents online improving the quality of the offer; but the effect, instead of being detrimental for TV, is the complete opposite. Recent research shows that most of those who watch a show online are regular followers who missed an episode on TV (keeping their interest in a series well alive). Another discovery is that some people choose to check out a show online before turning into regular viewers of its TV version.
While experiencing a show on your own, or watching the game online without "the guys", may be boring for most of today's adult population, younger MSN-Cellphone avid generations may grow to become loners that will enjoy the solitude of IPTV and texting their friends rather than the face to face experiences we enjoy so much. The couple of tomorrow will maybe go to bed holding laptops, each watching their favorite show, and sending text messages to each other to check if anyone is on the mood for some action...
Technology will evolve to accommodate for tomorrow's consumers, and it will certainly consider an interactive experience where users can choose offers from different sources to entertain themselves. Advertisers, whatever happens, will surely find their way into your living room no matter what.
Demise of conventional television, I think not. A new distribution and promotional channel for Television Networks; maybe so. The future is hard to tell, but the winners will be those with deeper pockets, and we all know who those are.
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